By Jason McIntyre
Fox Sports Betting Analyst
Football is officially back, baby! And when it comes to gambling, the NFL MVP is one of the most fun futures bets you can make.
If you don’t mind tying up some of your bankroll for a while, I can help you figure out the numbers. Quarterback Position – You should be able to decide based on one factor as to who you want to throw the money at.
The last nine MVPs have been quarterbacks, and over the past 15 years, a signal-caller has been named the league’s most valuable player 14 times.
Some of those players started out as long shots at winning prizes, but they are generally anomalies. Lamar Jackson (2019) opened at 100-1, but the bet was placed at 50-1 before the start of the season, when coach Harbaugh indicated he would have the historic number of quick tries. Similarly, Patrick Mahomes (2018) only opened at +3300 as he entered the season with only one regular season start under his belt.
When it comes to this upcoming season, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are all young, talented quarterbacks to watch, and they have the potential to be a long shot. However, ask yourself one important question before betting on those… Will the 49ers, Jets or Jaguars end the year as the top playoff seed? Unless you believe their respective teams will be among the top playoff seeds in their conferences, they really have no chance.
However, I think some quarterbacks actually Doing Season’s end offers a chance to win MVP, so let’s dive into my picks. And as always, all odds are through FOX bets.
1. Justin Herbert: +1000 on Fox Bet (bet $10 to win a total of $110)
Herbert’s promotion has spiraled a little out of control, so you have to wonder if the 24-year-old can get all the attention. But he was one of the six best quarterbacks in the NFL last season, throwing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns, using any advanced metric. And, rookie Zion Johnson’s joining the OL strengthens the unit’s weakest group, so the Chargers’ offense should be deadly again. Justin could take last season’s accomplishments as easy as Sunday morning.
However, this bet is not without risk. It is still the toughest division in football. There is a scenario where the Chargers can finish 10-7 in a loaded AFC and still miss the playoffs, and as noted above, the MVP is usually in the top seeded team in the post season.
2. josh allen: +700 on Fox Bet ($10 to win a total of $80)
The Bills are Super Bowl favorites, and Allen has the best skill position group in the AFC at his disposal. They are three-deep in the running back after adding James Cook – Dalvin’s younger brother – to the NFL Draft. And receiver Gabriel Davis seems poised for a breakout role after his nail-biting playoff loss to the Chiefs after his eight receptions, 201 yards, and four touchdown performances.
After a few stumbling blocks last November, Allen completed 77% of his passes and had nine TDs and no interceptions in two playoff games. The only question left about the former Wyoming star is how he will cope with the loss of OC Brian Dabol, who was replaced by Ken Dorsey – Buffalo’s QB coach – for the past three seasons.
3. Russell Wilson: +1700 on Fox Bet (Bet $10 to win a total of $180)
Which is more incredible – that Russell Wilson has never gotten the MVP vote or that he is the most popular MVP bet of all time? Wilson is set up for a monster year with an improved offensive line and a healthy Denver receiving corps.
If you look hard enough, you can find some stats that point to the Broncos., Being protected… overrated. If that’s the case, Wilson will need his usual late-game heroes to score some victories, and with five prime-time games, he’ll have plenty of chances to impress voters.
4. Kirk Cousins: +5000 on Fox Bet ($10 bet to win a total of $510)
Cousins are the most polarizing QBs in the league, but he was classified as a top 10 QB last season. Cousin Justin Jefferson has one of the best young receivers in the league. But more than anything, he has a new, aggressive-minded head coach. Kevin O’Connell comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, and we just saw what McVay disciple Zack Taylor did for Joe Burrows.
The last six opponents of the Cousins are the Jets, Lions, Colts, Giants, Packers and Bears. The cousins should burn everyone except the packers.
side note: There’s no way Aaron Rodgers wins third-straight MVP, with all signs pointing to Green Bay in particular this year.
5. tom brady: +850 on Fox Bet (bet $10 to win a total of $860)
Tom Brady is about to turn 45, which is unfathomable for an NFL quarterback. But as we all learned, never count TB12. The addition of Julio Jones is a good pick, as Brady will be without wide receiver Chris Godwin for at least two months. But the biggest reason Brady is so high is that the NFC South is a joke.
The Bucs will once again win at least 11 games and maybe even get a No. 1 seed in NFC. Brady was the MVP in 2017, and if he wins fourth, he will match Aaron Rodgers and trail only Peyton Manning for most of the time.
6. Patrick Mahomes: +800 on Fox Bet (bet $10 to win a total of $90)
Mahomes lost his most trusted receiver to Tyrek Hill, yet he is only behind Allen for the prize? Hmm.
He is coming off his worst season in the NFL, which had the lowest QB rating of his career. Mahomes led the league in turnover and lowest yards-per-effort. Several times in the past year, it appeared that teams had traced him with two-high security defenses.
But despite all that said, watch Mahomes for big regular season stats. It’s just not the price that I like.
7. Lamar Jackson: +2200 on Fox Bet (bet $10 to win a total of $230)
He already has an MVP, and is now playing for one of the richest QB contracts in league history. Lamar Jackson is for you if you are the kind of player who likes to bet on players who bet on themselves.
The problem of pass catchers remains. Second-year WR Rashod Bateman is the top choice after the Hollywood Brown trade, but Jackson has dealt with it throughout his tenure in Baltimore. There’s also some nervousness about how The OC’s Greg Romans and Jackson’s another year together will end because Roman doesn’t make the historically necessary adjustments.
Remember, it took three seasons for the defense to settle down with Roman and Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco.
8. Matthew Stafford: +1600 on Fox Bet (bet $10 to win a total of $170)
Stafford had the best season of his career in his first season at L.A. In the playoffs, he led the Rams to three straight one-score wins and just three interceptions, throwing for nine TDs. But, he struggled in the regular season, leading the NFL with 17 interceptions, including seven in the final three games. However, when you win the Super Bowl, all is forgotten.
On offense, there’s good and bad news this season for Stafford. The good news is that he has a healthy run at Cam Acres and the Rams replaced Odell Beckham for Alan Robinson at receiver. The bad thing is that the offensive line lost its best player and locker room leader to Andrew Whitworth.
9. who bur: +1300 on Fox Bet (Bet $10 to win a total of $140)
Joe Cool had one of the best second years in NFL history, completing 70% of his passes and taking the Bengals to the Super Bowl. But he was also dismissed league-high 51 times, so Cincinnati wisely upgraded the offensive line in the offseason.
Why isn’t Burrow high on the list with all his weapons? Well, Bengal has the toughest schedule in the league. They come out of the bye with two road games, then they host the Chiefs and the Browns. After that, they head back down the road to the Bucs and the Patriots and make off with the Bills and the Ravens.
If Burrow somehow wins six of those games, he’ll have a pretty good shot at MVP. I think it’s far more realistic to go .500 in those games, which won’t help his MVP matter.
10. Aaron Jones: +12500 on Fox Bet (bet $10 to win a total of $1,260)
The top 17 players with the best odds for winning MVP are all QBs. But if you want to take a long shot non-quarterback to win the prize, consider Green Bay’s Aaron Jones.
With Davante Adams gone and the Packers’ pass-catching group not looking very impressive, Jones may have had a Ladenian Tomlinson-type season, where he racked up more than 2,300 yards from scrimmage and at least 20 touchdowns. Is.
AJ Dillon will score some, but the stakes here are triple. The Packers’ offensive line is considered a top-five unit and is healthier in 2022 than it was last year; Jones should easily surpass his 2021 achieving number (52-391-6) and has just three games against projected units ranked in the top 10 on a schedule of opposing run defenses. At these odds, that some pizza is worth the money.
Jason McIntyre is a Fox Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and the NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared in every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content for FOX Sports on the NFL, college football and the NBA. He had a gambling podcast for Fox, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at Fox, he created The Big Lead website, which he sold in 2010.
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