Automotive News Newsletter Cox Automotive

Recovery headwinds mount as July US auto sales slump

Last week, Cox Automotive’s July US auto sales forecast was suggesting that the market will see little change from June’s results, as supply constraints are plaguing the new vehicle market. The team expects the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of new vehicle sales in July to increase slightly to 13.2 million from the 13.0 million pace last month, but down from last year’s level of 14.7 million. Volumes are projected to decline by about 13%.

We’ll have a full July measurement by the end of the week, but as Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, noted, “July results will likely be another reminder of how the U.S. auto market has turned a few years ago, before the pandemic.” Today’s auto market, running on a continuous 35-day supply, simply cannot support the volume that many of us took for granted. The old market, with over 70 days of supply, is a fading one. memory, and returning About 17 million annual sales are likely to take years. This new US auto market is a lean operation, with monthly retail sales of around 1 million units being the norm. Now the challenge? Learn how to operate profitably in this new environment and be prepared to move as the market moves.,

keep calm and move on

Contrary to popular belief, GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters No The official US definition of recession. Instead, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the nonprofit that determines when the US economy has entered recession, considers many factors beyond GDP, including real income, employment, industrial production, and consumer spending. Huh. Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox Automotive, says there is no sign the consumer is holding back, and the US is not in a broad market recession.

The new vehicle market remains limited by supply and the associated high prices and low incentives, which prevents sales volumes from increasing. However, in the smoke note auto market report video Published this morning: ,In the used-vehicle market, we see a lot of potential with normal levels of supply and a reduction in prices. It should create more opportunities and more demand later this summer and fall.,

Read Auto Market Weekly Summary And Watch Auto Market Report Video For more data and insights from Smoke to new and used retail sales and inventory, depreciation patterns and Cox Automotive key indicators.

Fed offers higher auto rates with more promise in July

The latest news from the Federal Reserve was released last week. Most watchers were expecting another big interest rate hike as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his team pursued their “whatever it takes” policy to quell rapid price inflation. And that’s exactly what we got. The Fed raised the target for the federal funds rate by three-quarters of a percent and remained firm in its goal of containing inflation.

Read Jonathan Smoke’s comment What the Fed’s decision means for auto buyers and how the ongoing rate hike will affect the overall market.

The used-vehicle market is back to normalcy, and that’s good news for the industry.

during our quarter Mannheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) Conference Call Last month, there were several questions related to the health of the US economy, inflation and the impact of inflation on used vehicle prices.

Jonathan Smoke noted during the call that the US economy has faced several headwinds so far in 2022, and consumer sentiment is indeed a big concern. Consumer sentiment further declined in the second quarter as Americans deal with rising prices, a turbulent stock market and increasingly negative politics. It rose 3% in July from a record low in June, but remains bleak and likely won’t improve significantly until more and more experts are publicly asking, “Are we in a recession? “

Read Smoke’s perspective On recession odds, inflation, and the state of the new and used auto markets.

Cox Automotive Market Performance Reports: GM and Nissan fall, other automakers beat expectations

It’s earnings season, and the Cox Automotive Industry Insights team is keeping a close eye on the performance of major automakers in the US market. So far, Hyundai Motor, Ford Motor Co and Stelantis have outperformed analysts’ expectations, reporting impressive gains, especially on strong sales of higher-margin vehicles.

Both General Motors and Nissan fell short of expectations due to production issues, but the days ahead are bright as supply chain woes improve.

view data points Hyundai, Payab, GM, Nissan And stellantis For the quarterly market performance report covering US sales volume, incentive spend and average transaction prices. Honda and Toyota data will be posted in the coming days.

F&I for an ecommerce future

Consumers have become accustomed to the transparency, speed and convenience of online shopping. Cox Automotive research shows that 76% of today’s car shoppers are completely open to online shopping, and 1 in 4 consumers say they prefer an Amazon-like car shopping experience, where they get a foothold at a dealership. will not be required. While not all of those shoppers today will be shopping completely online, they do want the opportunity to complete more shopping steps using digital channels.

Read the F&I for the Ecommerce FutureAn article by Paulo da Silva, Vice President of Cox Automotive Ecommerce, explores how advanced automation and artificial intelligence technology can enhance consumer transparency and personalization and improve retailer profitability.